Live collection · updated hourly

Pacific Watch

Corroborated defence and security events across the Indo-Pacific, fused from 120 open sources by our Argus collection engine. Every dot is a multi-source event; size is corroboration, colour is best source grade (NATO Admiralty). The public feed runs 6 hours behind live collection.

13,937

reports collected, last 7 days

120

sources under continuous collection

1616

active fused events

33 min ago

snapshot generated

40°E60°E80°E100°E120°E140°E160°E180°E-40°S-20°S0°N20°N40°N60°NTaiwan StraitScarboroughHormuzMalaccaKorean Pen.Miyako StraitThe war in Ukraine has dramatically changed special forces operations — 26 sources, grade AThe lesson of the Iran War may be staying power, not firepower — 24 sources, grade ATaiwan MND daily PLA report (2026-07-25): 29 PLA aircraft sorties (17 into the ADIZ), median-line crossing(s), 6 PLAN vessels, 5 coast-guard — 22 sources, grade ABetter to use (and lose) robots than soldiers: Ukraine’s UGV drive — 21 sources, grade AHormuz Transits Remain Low, Houthis Resume Attacks in Red Sea — 18 sources, grade AUK accelerates long-range strike capability for Ukraine — 18 sources, grade AKeep an eye on China’s AI governance offensive — 15 sources, grade ABookshelf: the next China is still China — 15 sources, grade ACentcom Completes Latest Strikes Against Iran — 15 sources, grade ACollateral damage of US–China competition: South Korea’s defence industry - The International Institute for Strategic Studies — 15 sources, grade AEurope’s security cannot be built on coercion or spheres of influence: UK statement to the OSCE — 15 sources, grade AForget the signalling: China’s missile test is part of an alarming nuclear buildup — 15 sources, grade AU.S. Disables Ship a Day Into Blockade, Strait of Hormuz Transits Hit Low As Risk Appetite Falls — 14 sources, grade ARussia launches major ballistic missile attack on Ukrainian cities — 14 sources, grade BBeijing is testing who will stand by Taiwan — 12 sources, grade AJapan, China foreign ministers talk for 1st time since ties worsened — 12 sources, grade BAustralia will soon host a US SSN force. We need to discuss war planning — 11 sources, grade AMercedes risks US sales ban under Senate China bill — 11 sources, grade BAustralia stands behind Philippines amid China’s aggression — 10 sources, grade ANo limits? Testing the China-Russia relationship - Brookings — 10 sources, grade BChina detains US scientist who studied North Korea nuclear tests — 10 sources, grade BEU, speak out about China. You owe it to the Indo-Pacific — 9 sources, grade APM call with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine: 20 July 2026 — 9 sources, grade AChina Maritime Report #56—“The Silent Service: Assessing PLAN Influence in the Central Military Commission” — 9 sources, grade AUK clamps down on shady networks supplying Putin’s illegal war with new sanctions package — 9 sources, grade ATrump to meet Lebanon’s president as US pushes ahead with peace deal — 9 sources, grade BJoint statement on the tenth anniversary of the Philippines-China South China Sea Arbitral Tribunal Award — 9 sources, grade ACanada joins next-generation fighter jet programme as first Observer Nation — 9 sources, grade AFamilies still search for bodies a month after Venezuela earthquakes — 8 sources, grade BThe US just lowered its own nuclear bar — 8 sources, grade BTrump alleges China meddled in 2020 election and questions voting security ahead of midterms — 8 sources, grade BPentagon identifies American soliders killed in Iranian attack in Jordan — 8 sources, grade BSaudi Arabia strikes Houthis after Iran-backed rebels target energy sites — 7 sources, grade BReport to Congress on Issues for NATO at the Ankara Summit — 7 sources, grade AChina braces for back-to-back typhoons as extreme weather risks rise — 6 sources, grade BIran, the ceasefire and the Gulf: what comes next - Chatham House — 6 sources, grade ASaudis must recognise Israel for nuclear deal, says Trump — 5 sources, grade BHouthi attacks raise fears of wider Middle East conflict and more global economic damage — 5 sources, grade BIran war creates an opening for Pakistan’s maritime industry - East Asia Forum — 5 sources, grade BReduction Expected for Japan Cost-of-Living Allowance Rates — 5 sources, grade AIndonesia orders Leonardo light fighters, eyes naval helicopters — 5 sources, grade BIran war reignites debate over US energy-permitting reform — 5 sources, grade BPrime Minister congratulates Mr. Andy Burnham on assuming office as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom - PIB — 4 sources, grade AUkraine Is Killing Thousands of Russians Every Week. Is It Making a Difference? — 4 sources, grade CEA-37 Electronic Warfare Aircraft Deploy as Trump Weighs Large-Scale Ops Against Iran — 4 sources, grade BEbola treatments trial begins in DR Congo — 4 sources, grade BUK forces intercept Russian shadow fleet vessel for the first time in blow to Putin's war chest — 4 sources, grade AHungary’s reset with Ukraine is good news for European deterrence - Chatham House — 4 sources, grade AChina-friendly KMT stunts Taiwan’s attempt to grow into a fully formed hedgehog — 4 sources, grade AStrategic Knowledge Infrastructure — 4 sources, grade CPrime Minister secures Ukraine defence deal backing British jobs and industry: 13 July 2026 — 4 sources, grade ABangladesh courts China even as ties with India improve — 4 sources, grade BIran says Ukrainian attack on vessel in Caspian Sea killed sailor — 3 sources, grade BRussian attacks kill eight as Ukraine hits Black Sea oil tankers — 3 sources, grade BIndia’s Gen Z protesters puncture Modi’s aura of invincibility — 3 sources, grade BChina braced for second typhoon in a week as Bavi approaches landfall — 3 sources, grade BHow China is using film diplomacy to project a better image across Africa — 3 sources, grade CNATO fighter jets scramble, shot down drone after it enters Romania airspace - ac.nato.int — 3 sources, grade BHow A Premier Chinese Think Tank Sees U.S.-China Competition — 3 sources, grade CUK takes command of multinational force for Ukraine — 3 sources, grade ANotice of Action: Brazil's Acts, Policies, and Practices Related to Digital Trade and Electronic Payment Services; Unfair, Preferential Tari — 3 sources, grade APhilippine Sailor Injured in Violent Clash with China Coast Guard off Second Thomas Shoal — 3 sources, grade A15 ferry sailings suspended as Tropical Storm Noul approaches — 3 sources, grade BChina’s EUV Lithography Progress: Parsing Signal From Noise — 3 sources, grade BTaiwan Receives Latest Coast Guard Cutter from $1.3B Fleet Build-up Plan — 3 sources, grade AGhanaians' ICC petition over migrant attacks 'opportunistic', says South Africa — 3 sources, grade BMagnitude 5.6 earthquake shakes northern Taiwan — 2 sources, grade BFirefighters battle wildfire as tens of thousands evacuated near Bordeaux — 2 sources, grade BSearch for survivors continues as 45 rescued after cargo ship sinks in South China Sea — 2 sources, grade CXinhua News | Rain-triggered flash flood kills 10 in China's Gansu scenic area - Xinhua — 2 sources, grade DUS approves Switchblade drone sale to Greece — 2 sources, grade C14 Year Old Boy Linked to Hoax Phone Call Causing QRA Intercept of Qatari Airliner — 2 sources, grade BPentagon Lowers Official Iran War Death Toll, Omitting Four — 2 sources, grade CPolar Primer: Arctic and Antarctic Governance — 2 sources, grade BUncrewed and untested: The wrong lessons for a hybrid navy — 2 sources, grade BU.S. Army Deploys Hypersonic Missiles in Range of China During Exercise — 2 sources, grade AChina turns Antelope Reef into massive regional power base - Cebu Daily News — 2 sources, grade BIndustrial production hits new high in June on strong AI demand — 2 sources, grade BTrump slaps 50% tariffs on Canada and Carney vows to 'intensify' trade talks — 2 sources, grade BFirst Polish F-35 Built at Cameri’s FACO has Flown — 2 sources, grade B
live
dot size = independent sourcestile chart = daily report activity per chokepointcolour = best source grade:A–B reliableC fairly reliableD not usually reliableE–F unreliable

Most corroborated this week

Standing watch

Indicators we set in advance — and whether they fired. The assessed meaning of a firing runs in the weekly brief.

Grey-zone incident at Scarborough or Second Thomas Shoal

FIRED 2026-07-23

PLAN carrier group transits first island chain chokepoint

quiet

Strait of Hormuz transit disruption

quiet

Last 24 hours

2,923 reports collected and fused in the last day.

Iran says Ukrainian attack on vessel in Caspian Sea killed sailor

Iran

Search for survivors continues as 45 rescued after cargo ship sinks in South China Sea

South China Sea

Focused tracker

PLA Navy Tracker — where is the Chinese fleet? →

A China-focused disposition view: Taiwan MND daily activity counts, free Sentinel satellite imagery over every PLAN home berth, and graded sightings — on a dedicated map of the home bases and chokepoints.

Launching September 2026

First Island Brittleness — the number this page is building toward

Everything Pacific Watch collects feeds a quarterly 0–100 index measuring how fast the US-allied position in the Indo-Pacific is decaying versus being rebuilt — munitions latency, industrial regeneration, allied political half-life. The index level, its drivers, and a monthly political sub-index will publish here, with full history. Methodology →

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Pacific Watch shows what our engine sees. The weekly Pacific Brief is what we assess it means — graded sourcing, the rival read steelmanned, PHIA likelihood language, and a public record of every judgment we publish, including the ones we get wrong.

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Methodology: events are machine-fused from open-source reporting (semantic clustering, 12-day window, geographic gating) and shown only when corroborated by two or more independent sources with a resolved location. Source grades follow NATO Admiralty (STANAG 2511) reliability. Chokepoint states are event-count based until our baseline matures, then anomaly-scored. The public snapshot is delayed 6 hours and excludes client-scoped collection. Full methodology →