Live collection · updated hourly

Pacific Watch

Corroborated defence and security events across the Indo-Pacific, fused from 120 open sources by our Argus collection engine. Every dot is a multi-source event; size is corroboration, colour is best source grade (NATO Admiralty). The public feed runs 6 hours behind live collection.

12,505

reports collected, last 7 days

120

sources under continuous collection

1533

active fused events

38 min ago

snapshot generated

40°E60°E80°E100°E120°E140°E160°E180°E-40°S-20°S0°N20°N40°N60°NTaiwan StraitScarboroughHormuzMalaccaKorean Pen.Miyako StraitUpdate 367 – IAEA Director General Statement on Situation in Ukraine — 30 sources, grade ANuclear weapons: the global outlook in an unstable new era — 30 sources, grade ATaiwan MND daily PLA report (2026-09-27): 2 PLA aircraft sorties, 5 PLAN vessels, 6 coast-guard vessels around Taiwan — 28 sources, grade ABritish companies to access prized Ukraine data to develop AI drone swarms — 27 sources, grade ASouth Korea and Europe: advancing cooperation in a changing security environment - The International Institute for Strategic Studies — 26 sources, grade APentagon Inspector General Report on Operation Epic Fury — 25 sources, grade AHormuz Transits Hit Three-week High, VLCC Rates Explode — 24 sources, grade AChina is building an AI system for tailoring its foreign propaganda — 22 sources, grade AThe U.S.-China Summit: Too Big and Too Small to Fail - CSIS | Center for Strategic and International Studies — 21 sources, grade BJapan’s critical-minerals strategy - The International Institute for Strategic Studies — 21 sources, grade AUK pledges winter air defence package to boost Ukraine's defences — 20 sources, grade ATo secure frontier AI access, Australia’s best bet is a coalition of the dependent — 19 sources, grade AChina’s Navy in 2025: An Ocean of Open-Source Documentation — 19 sources, grade ARussia is widening insecurity while refusing the path to peace: UK statement to the OSCE — 18 sources, grade ABeijing picked 19,000 companies to win. Many are already in our supply chains — 16 sources, grade ATwo killed in 'massive' Ukrainian drone attack on Moscow region, Russia says — 15 sources, grade BTo deter China, we need a global alliance of democracies — 15 sources, grade ARussia’s Pacific submarine fleet could tip the scales in China’s favour — 14 sources, grade ADenmark’s Greenland deal with Trump is a victory for diplomacy over bullying - Chatham House — 13 sources, grade AA new claim on the Batanes, from an old Chinese playbook — 13 sources, grade AAir Force, Japan Exercise Tsunami Evacuation Procedures — 12 sources, grade AEU, speak out about China. You owe it to the Indo-Pacific — 11 sources, grade A3 Years of Middle East Combat Altering How Navy Supplies, Maintains Fleet, Leaders Say — 10 sources, grade ATrump and Xi to meet twice more after summit fails to resolve tensions — 9 sources, grade BRussia Unveils Stealthy Munitions for the Su-57 at El Alamein Airshow — 9 sources, grade BHouthis, Yemen Fighting Continues, Saudi Arabia Faces Pipeline Challenges — 9 sources, grade AReduction Expected for Japan Cost-of-Living Allowance Rates — 9 sources, grade ATrump suggests EU-Canada associate member deal would be ‘hostile act’ — 9 sources, grade BIn Germany’s east, old ties to Moscow fuel AfD rise — 8 sources, grade BHow Russia’s new drones are changing the air war — 8 sources, grade BIndia’s relationship with China should be understood sector-by-sector — 8 sources, grade AUkraine races to prepare for winter — 7 sources, grade AU.S. Taiwan policy unchanged after Trump-Xi summit: Deputy FM — 7 sources, grade BPrime Minister secures Ukraine defence deal backing British jobs and industry: 13 July 2026 — 7 sources, grade ATraditional industries see limited AI gains as K-shaped economy widens: Expert — 7 sources, grade BUK forces intercept Russian shadow fleet vessel for the first time in blow to Putin's war chest — 6 sources, grade AHow China is rethinking tank survival against FPVs and top-attack threats — 6 sources, grade BIsrael’s far right urges Netanyahu to reject Trump’s Gaza plan — 6 sources, grade BGermany receives first F-35 fighter jet - ac.nato.int — 6 sources, grade BHegseth, German Counterpart Agree to Advance Defense Industrial Cooperation — 6 sources, grade AHumanoid Robots and China’s Vision of the Future — 5 sources, grade BItaly taps state-owned firms to build two naval destroyers in $4.2 billion deal — 4 sources, grade BU.S. may delay Taiwan arms sale amid more Trump-Xi meetings: Analysts — 4 sources, grade BAs Merz scrambles for support, Germany's identity crisis is laid bare — 4 sources, grade BNew Evidence China Is Building A Massive Mothership For Drone Submarines — 4 sources, grade BAustralia’s next interoperability challenge is military AI — 4 sources, grade AThe Kuril Flashpoint: Putin’s Visit and the Future of Japan-Russia Ties — 4 sources, grade BThe Air Force says its China think-tank will continue. It’s director says it’s basically dead. — 4 sources, grade BMostly dry weather to give way to showers Thursday: CWA — 3 sources, grade BLatvia To Order Anduril’s Barracuda Cruise Missile For Long-Range Strike Capability — 3 sources, grade BChina sends two pandas to zoo in American Atlanta - TV — 3 sources, grade DFor North Korea, AI is a cybercrime force multiplier — 3 sources, grade AJapan Defense Focus No.199 - mod.go.jp — 3 sources, grade AIndonesia’s First Aircraft Carrier: Former Italian Ship ‘Garibaldi’ Reaches Domestic Waters — 3 sources, grade BMarshall Islands, Tuvalu voice support for Taiwan at U.N. assembly — 3 sources, grade BPolish defense official says US has decided to establish a base in Poland — 3 sources, grade BFrance to send military to protect Saudi Arabia on Red Sea oil route, Macron says — 3 sources, grade BStolen FBI data reveals employees’ roles in intelligence and surveillance — 3 sources, grade BSouth Korea inducts first locally developed fighter jet into air force — 3 sources, grade BAmerica’s B-52 Bombers Will Cost At Least $276 Million to Upgrade—Each — 3 sources, grade CDomestic needs to drive next Trump-Xi meeting: Scholar — 3 sources, grade BIsrael’s settler economy braces for European sanctions — 3 sources, grade BGlobal bond sell-off eases as oil prices retreat from recent highs — 3 sources, grade BUS military families face weeks in hotels amid Okinawa housing shortage - stripes.com — 3 sources, grade BAustralia and New Zealand strengthen defence science cooperation - defence.gov.au — 3 sources, grade AThe Saudi economy can hold out through year’s end—even if oil exports drop to zero — 3 sources, grade BRussia is weaponizing US-built AI to make killer drones, cyberattack bots, and fake news — 3 sources, grade BTakaichi’s Pre-emptive Diplomacy: What Japan Needs From the Trump-Xi Summit — 3 sources, grade BNorth Korea Tests New Hypersonic Missile — 3 sources, grade AUK Thwarts Suspected Terrorist Plot Against Base Used by US Bombers for Strikes on Iran — 2 sources, grade BPrime Minister meets with the President of the Russian Federation on the sidelines of BRICS Summit - pib.gov.in — 2 sources, grade A4th FW F-15Es Return From Iran Air War With Mortal Kombat-Themed Nose Art And Drone Kill Markings — 2 sources, grade BCanada Advances Negotiations with Saab for GlobalEye — 2 sources, grade BFour civilians killed in Pakistani strikes in Afghanistan, Taliban says — 2 sources, grade BUS troop rotations heading back to Lithuania amid high tension in Europe, Baltic leader says - stripes.com — 2 sources, grade BThe Drones of Bannockburn: A Fourteenth-Century Battle’s Bloody Lessons for Taiwan’s Defense — 2 sources, grade BChina, U.S. reach consensus on eight outcomes in Xi's visit - Xinhua — 2 sources, grade DRussian hybrid attacks likely to increase in coming months: Danish intel assessment — 2 sources, grade BCEOs from sensitive sectors to receive briefings on Russia threats — 2 sources, grade AXinhua News | Chinese navy hospital ship arrives in Senegal for medical mission - Xinhua — 2 sources, grade D
live
dot size = independent sourcestile chart = daily report activity per chokepointcolour = best source grade:A–B reliableC fairly reliableD not usually reliableE–F unreliable

Most corroborated this week

Standing watch

Indicators we set in advance — and whether they fired. The assessed meaning of a firing runs in the weekly brief.

Grey-zone incident at Scarborough or Second Thomas Shoal

quiet

PLAN carrier group transits first island chain chokepoint

quiet

Strait of Hormuz transit disruption

quiet

Last 24 hours

2,724 reports collected and fused in the last day.

UK Thwarts Suspected Terrorist Plot Against Base Used by US Bombers for Strikes on Iran

Iran

Focused tracker

PLA Navy Tracker — where is the Chinese fleet? →

A China-focused disposition view: Taiwan MND daily activity counts, free Sentinel satellite imagery over every PLAN home berth, and graded sightings — on a dedicated map of the home bases and chokepoints.

Launching September 2026

First Island Brittleness — the number this page is building toward

Everything Pacific Watch collects feeds a quarterly 0–100 index measuring how fast the US-allied position in the Indo-Pacific is decaying versus being rebuilt — munitions latency, industrial regeneration, allied political half-life. The index level, its drivers, and a monthly political sub-index will publish here, with full history. Methodology →

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Pacific Watch shows what our engine sees. The weekly Pacific Brief is what we assess it means — graded sourcing, the rival read steelmanned, PHIA likelihood language, and a public record of every judgment we publish, including the ones we get wrong.

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Open data & feeds

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Methodology: events are machine-fused from open-source reporting (semantic clustering, 12-day window, geographic gating) and shown only when corroborated by two or more independent sources with a resolved location. Source grades follow NATO Admiralty (STANAG 2511) reliability. Chokepoint states are event-count based until our baseline matures, then anomaly-scored. The public snapshot is delayed 6 hours and excludes client-scoped collection. Full methodology →